THE POLITICAL INSTITUTION IN MONGOLIA AND SUSTAINABILITY OF ECONOMIC GROWTH: An Interrupted Time Series Analysis

Authors

  • Uuganbayar Tumurkhuu, Associate professor Author
  • Bolormaa Baatar Author
  • Budgerel Tsengeljargal, Master student Author

Abstract

During the last three decades, there have been several cases of faster economic 
growth and sharp economic decline in Mongolia. It shows that it is very worth to study and identify 
what factors causes the unsustainability of economic growth in post-communist countries. In this study, 
we relied on two competing accepted hypotheses on economic development that reject each other.  We 
combined them as a convergent knowledge to study our research problem and find holistic answer to 
our research question. We use secondary source of data to test our hypotheses. We employed 
interrupted time-series design of quasi-experiment study to analyze the data and interpret the meanings 
of data analysis. One finding of this study shows that reforms towards inclusive economy causes higher 
sustainability of economic growth. Another finding shows that a coalition government of dominant 
parties changes economic institutions towards more extractive one and causes sharp economic decline 
when there is lower knowledge of managing economic policy effectively.  

References

[1] Verena Fritz, Brian Levy, and Rachel Ort. (2014). Problem-Driven Political Economy

Analysis: The World Bank’s Experience. Washington, D.C: World Bank.

[2] Acemoglu, D., Liabson, D., List, J. (2015). Why Isn’t the Whole World Developed?,. In

Pearson, Macroeconomics.

[3] Acemoglu, Daron; Robinson, James A. (2012). Why Nations Fail. Crown Business.

Crown Business.

[4] Bank, W. (2021, November 22). GDP growth (annual %). Retrieved from The World Bank

Group: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG

[5] David Stanway and Terrence Edwards. (2012, May). Resource-rich Mongolia plays

populist card in run-up to polls Reuters,. Retrieved from Reuters: https://www.reuters.com/article/us

mongolia-investment-idUSBRE84H09R20120518

[6] IMF. (2017, May 24). IMF Executive Board Approves Financial Arrangement for

Mongolia. Retrieved from International Monetary Fund - PRESS RELEASE NO. 17/193:

https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2017/05/24/17193-imf-executive-board-approves-financial

arrangement-for-mongolia#_ftn1

[7] Jakšić, Miomir; Jakšić, Milica. (2018). Inclusive Institutions for Sustainable Economic

Development. Journal of Central Banking doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.2478/jcbtp-2018-0001 Theory and Practice, 7(1), 5-16.

[8] Lauren Bonilla & Tuya Shagdar. (2018). Electoral gifting and personal politics in

Mongolia’s. Electoral gifting and personal, 37(3), 457-474.

[9] Lergetporer, Philipp; Werner, Katharina; Woessmann, Ludge. (2021). Does Ignorance

of Economic Returns and Costs Explain the Educational Aspiration Gap? Representative Evidence

from Adults and Adolescents. Economica, 351, 624-670. doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/ecca.12371

[10] Lopez de Leon, Fernanda Leite, and Renata Rizzi. (2014). A Test for the Rational

Ignorance Hypothesis: Evidence from a Natural Experiment in Brazil. American Economic Journal:

Economic Policy, 6(4), 380-98. doi:DOI: 10.1257/pol.6.4.380

[11] Medema, R. E. (2009). Defining Economics: The Long Road to Acceptance of the

Robbins Definition. Economica, 76(3002), 805-806.

[12] Reeves, J. (2011). Mongolia's Environmental Security Chinese Unconscious Power and

Ulaanbaatar's State Weakness. Asian Survey, 51(3), 453-471.

[13] Robbins, L. (1935). An Essay on the Nature and Significance of Economic Science. 2nd

ed. London: Macmillan.

[14] Shizgal, P. (2012). Scarce Means with Alternative Uses: Robbins’ Definition of

Economics and Its Extension to the Behavioral and Neurobiological Study of Animal Decision Making.

Front Neurosci, 6(20), doi: 10.3389/fnins.2012.00020.

[15] Tumurkhuu, U. (2012). Interest Groups and Political Parties in Mongolian Democracy.

Journal of Northeast Asia Research, 27(1), 281-306.

[16] Tumurkhuu, U. (2012). Interest Groups and Political Parties in Mongolian Democracy

Journal of North East Asia Studies. Journal of North East Asia Studies, 27(1), 281-306.

Downloads

Published

2022-01-22

Issue

Section

Төрийн удирдлага, Улс төрийн шинжлэх ухааны онол-олон нийтийн харилцаа